I know the point of this type of drafting is to get rid of the most of the speculation, but I think it's impossible to completely remove it from the equation. Some things change significantly over the off season and I think it's worth mentioning those things for you to take into account when drafting your players. So in the following blog I will cover those players who either won't show up in the draft orders due to injury or rookie status and players who have experienced a significant change in environment for you to consider when drafting. You should still stick as closely to the draft orders generated by the draft machine but I don't want you drafting players that have little chance of repeating the same performance as they did last year.

I constantly hear "experts" talking about how they rank players up or down based on the schedule they have. However I would like to show you why SOS is a bunk statistic to use when considering draft picks. The chart you will find below contains data about 40 NFL players over the past 3 years and places their fantasy points (1 being the highest fantasy score) vs SOS. If there were any correlation between fantasy score and SOS you would find what looks like a line from the bottom left corner to the top right. The reason would be that the majority of fantasy scores should be low in high SOS years and high in low SOS years. Instead what we find is a pretty straight line across the graph, with a grouping in the HIGH SOS and HIGH score section of the graph. What does this mean? It means you should ignore SOS when considering who to pick and anyone who uses it as a metric for determining draft orders is wrong.

sos


We have also compiled a chart containing the last 5 years of fantasy scores for a number of the top players it's a bit messy but maybe you will find it helpful here.

Ok it wouldn't be a new year without some new charts! Here is a chart of some fantasy values over age of players. It looks like players follow a pattern not really based on age but based on time starting, check it out here. Hard to find many players that have more than 2 years of increasing fantasy value no matter what age, something to think a bout

QB

Peyton Manning - Playing with Denver. The WRs there appear to be decent and he could make them great. Everything so far looks to be on track for him. Keep and eye out and if you don't get one of the top 5 you could get him in the 3rd round.

Drew Brees- The Saints, who will be missing their head coach this year. He was off the charts last year, you can't count on the same production but still one of the top 3 QBs. UPDATE: Signed contract will be in training camp, all go.

WR

Wes Welker - Having contract issues. He seems like too nice a guy to hold out but you never know. UPDATE: He's going to play.

Mike Wallace - Contract issues with Stealers. This one could get ugly so I would tread lightly. UPDATE: did not report to camp, however, Steelers have expressed interest in getting his contract done.

Randy Moss - Coach seems to love him and he has something to prove. The only question is does Moss have anything left? Take a reach as your #3 WR or put him on your bench.

Vincent Jackson- On Tampa Bay now. Not sure how this will go, they really had a slump last year. If the QB comes back it would be about the same from Jackson as usual, if not he could be worse.

Larent Robinson - The last time the Cowboys sent a WR to Jacksonville it was Jimmy Smith... Not saying he will be as good, but he had a pretty good year last year and should be the #1 to the rookie #2. The question is can this QB get the ball to them, I'm going to say no.

Brandon Lloyd - Should be a great deep threat in NE, but with Welker, Hernandez, and Gronk not much room left. I predicted Ocho Stinko would do great there and he was a bust, burn me twice shame on me, Tom Brady.

Taylor Price - IR don't draft

Dez Bryant - Smacked his mama. As with Lynch if Goodell gets tired of the little arrests going on he could slap a suspension on all the multiple offenders. Watch closely.

Kenny Britt - Knee surgery recently. Supposedly on the knee he didn't have surgery on last year. It's not a good sign, the guy was a monster but 2 bad knees? UPDATE: DUI to top things off, put on the PUP list to start camp.

Dwayne Bowe - Not in training camp.UPDATE: Has signed and will be in for the last 2 weeks of the preseason.

Andre Johnson - There is so much hype I put him down in the bottom. Everyone rates him highly but he is already injured this year, and he has missed 3 or more games almost half the seasons he has played. You've been warned.

Vincent Brown - Broken ankle, will miss at least 8 weeks (6 weeks of the season).

RB

Jammal Charles - He was great 2 years ago, had one of the highest yards per carry ever and Thomas Jones was his time share. Now you have Hillis (how many of us hate him after last year) as the other guy. Hillis may be better than Jones was and could take some serious TD opportunities away from Charles. He could be a steal in the 4th round.

Adrian Peterson - Arrested and coming off a knee injury late in the season. The best you can hope for from him is end of year production. This is a risky pick, these injuries take a year to heal even when he does get back to full knee strength his conditioning could be low. UPDATE: Starting camp on PUP list.

Ryan Mathews - Broken collar bone, out 4 to 6 weeks. That means he will miss at least 2 games probably 4 or more. UPDATE: Team reporting he will miss at least first 3 games.

Matt Forte - Still holding out for a better contract. The Bears seem unwilling to go with him, and he wasn't exactly a fantasy super hero last year. They have Michael Bush on the team now and the guy scored very well last year. Even if Forte joins the team he will be looking over his shoulder.UPDATE: Contract done, I still like Michael Bush, but looks like he'll be full go.

Michael Bush - Long story short, high draft pick injured, McFadden drafted, Bush becomes #2 runs like #1. So he headed to Chicago after having a pretty good fantasy season last year. Definitely worth a bench spot in shallow leagues and good for a flex or 3rd RB in deep leagues.

Cedric Benson - Now on the Packers, this could be a huge season for him.

Rashard Mendenhall- Recovering from blown knee, probably miss first 6 games, Issac Redman should be the starter for the Stealers.

Marshawn Lynch- DUI, shouldn't be that big of a deal however this is his 3rd time getting in trouble. With all the other arrests going on this offseason it is possible there may be a show of force from the commish and Lynch could get caught up in it.

Maurice Jones-Drew- Contract negotiations are looking bad, looks like a possible hold out. UPDATE: Things seem to be getting worse, this may not resolve before the season.

Jahvid Best- Having health isssues. There was concern over knee and now concussion issues.

Bradie Ewing- Blew his knee out, on IR.

David Wilson- Making some noise in the preseason. Good bench sleeper if you have extra room.

Trent Richardson- He is the number one at the Browns for what that is worth and he is a rookie.UPDATE: Had "minor" knee surgery and will probably not play at all this preseason. This guy being ranked in the top 20 is a joke. Take him as your #2 RB at best.

TE

Rob Gronkowski - Coming off major ankle surgery. Thy gave him a big contract and the guy is a monster BUT if I was taking a TE high and had my choice I would go with Jimmy Graham to be safe.

David Johnson - IR, Do not draft.

Jason Witten - Torn spleen. Will miss preseason, might miss more. Hard to count on him being healthy until more is disclosed about the injury.

K

Coming Soon

Def

Defenses have just become too inconsistent year to year to try and predict how they will perform.